The Winner of the Iowa Caucus is…Rick Perry!

You can’t turn on the TV right now without hearing about the roller coaster that is the Iowa Caucus. Their is nearly constant blathering about the polls, and who is rising and falling and who will end up on top.

“Winning” the caucus is defined as getting the highest percentage of votes.  This totally misses the point of the real role of the Iowa Caucus.

The point of the caucus is to winnow the field.  Traditionally there are three tickets out of Iowa. This year they will belong to Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Perry.

Rick Santorum may very well win the caucus or come very close, but it will be a hollow victory. He has no organization in any other state and no money to set one up. He will be lucky to have enough plane fare to get to New Hampshire and he certainly will not be able to get ads up in South Carolina or Florida. He is done.

I have been a fan of Newt, but Iowa has been a buzz-saw for his campaign. He is off message due to Romney’s negative ads, and has no no money to get ads up in response and no ability to raise more. His campaign is effectively over.

Michele Bachmann is also done. She may get fewer votes in the caucus than she did in the straw poll. What organization she has is disintegrating around her. She staked everything on Iowa. She needs to return to the House and lead the Tea Party Caucus and start solidifying support for a Bachmann Speakership in the next Congress.

That leaves Rick Perry as the conservative alternative to Romney. He will make it out of Iowa in the top four, with the necessary resources to continue his campaign to New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond.

Perry has a better organization in South Carolina than he does in Iowa, and he should be easily able to defeat Romney there thanks to Perry’s brand of social conservatism and tea party values.

Ron Paul will also be a help to Perry as it will focus conservatives on the need to rally behind a candidate in order to stop not only Romney, but Paul as well.

Iowa has done it’s job, it has picked the conservative candidate and I believe the next President of the United States: Rick Perry.

Game on.

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North Korea, Ron Paul, and Jesus? The End is Nigh.

The two top headlines from Drudge this morning:

1. North Korea test fires short-range missile following the death of Kim Jong-Il

2. POLL: Paul Pulls Ahead which links to a story which has an even worse headline:

Gingrich Collapses in Iowa as Ron Paul Surges to the Front

Finally there is this:

Late Saturday night in modern day Babylon, Jesus returned, and prophesied a loss of the Broncos to the Patriots, which came to pass on Sunday Afternoon.

Luckily the appearance was caught on video.  You can watch it here:

Can all these events be mere coincidence? You be the judge.

Straw Poll Predictions RON PAUL WINS!

RON PAUL WINS! I predict Ron Paul will win the straw poll. His Ronulan followers are legion and known for massing at straw polls. I believe that is one reason that Romney is not playing in Iowa. He does not want to explain a loss to Ron Paul in the Iowa Straw Poll.

2nd Place Michelle Bachmann. She is from Iowa and will play well here.

3rd Place Rick Santorum. A solid social conservative that has been spending time in the state, a must for a good showing.

4th Place Mitt Romney. The frontrunner status will get him 4th place here where he has spent too little time.

5th Place Newt Gingrich. His good debate showing will help a little but not enough to put him in the top half here…yet.

6th Place Herman Cain. The sleeper. He has little money, but is very impressive in person, he could do well if his message resonates.

7th Place Tim Pawlenty. Its OVER for him. He needs to beat Bachmann to stay in the race. That is a tall order.

The FOXNews Ames Debate; Winner: Newt, Loser: FOXNews

After watching the debate last night it occurs to me how important it is to have a panel of questioners that is interested in more than catching candidates in double speak.

The questions seemed focused more on knocking people out of the field, than allowing the audience to determine where they stood on issues that mattered to the country.  This of course was precisely Newt’s point last night in this exchange with Chris Wallace:

Wallace’s retort is absolutely wrong by the way, the question he ask Newt had nothing to do with his record. It was meant to diminish him as a candidate and push him out of the debate and the race.  He has clearly learned his lesson from his appearance on Meet the Press where he simply accepted the terms of the questioner.  He pushed back against the Washington Press establishment last night. Hard. And provided real answers to what he thought should be done in the process.

He reminded me of Chris Christie last night.  Winner.

Chris Wallace last night also intentionally pitted Pawlenty against Bachmann in a blatant attempt to cause a brawl on stage that would take two candidates down in one fell swoop.  Pawlenty is clearly done (stick a fork in him), but Bachmann diminished herself by constantly having to defend rather than discuss what she would do for America.  It was only a marginally successful night for her. Her best line was of course the retort to Byron York’s incredibly offensive question.  Once again, shame on FOXNews

They also gave much to much time to Ron Paul and his dangerous foreign policy regarding Iran and Nuclear weapons.  They allowed him to monopolize much of the foreign policy section. If I didn’t know any better I would say the entire goal of that section was to eliminate him as a viable candidate.

I really liked Rick Santorum last night.  He spoke powerfully against Ron Paul and like Newt called out the debate panel on their idiotic mode of questioning.  He has always been a strong social conservative, but now I see him successfully linking that to founding principles.  I thought his answer on the 10th Amendment was excellent. Natural Law trumps the Constitution. Well done.  I also admired his defense of the tea party as a flat and locally led movement.  This was an oblique reference to Bachmann’s assertion that SHE brought tens of thousands of people to DC to fight Obamacare.  She did herself no favors with the tea party last night with that comment.  She is NOT a leader of the tea party movement.  Her assertion that she is, shows a disrespect to its true leaders, the American people.

Romney had a good line about dog food.

Cain didn’t get enough time to stand out, but he did not hurt himself either.

Huntsman’s favorite word is “record.”

Recap:

Establishment Stuffed Shirt Front Runner: Romney

Conservatives On the Rise: Newt, Santorum, Bachmann

Conservative On the Decline: Cain

Conservative Crashing and Burning: Pawlenty

Crickets: Hunstsman

Bat Shit Crazy: Paul

The real winner may have been the one that wasn’t there: Rick Perry